Forex Market

AUDJPY – Short-term bullish outlook

AUDJPY, H4

Australia’s November retail figures continued to record higher, at 7.3%, above the 3.9% market forecast and above the 4.9% rise in October. It also holds the record for the fourth strongest retail figure since the data began being collected. Meanwhile Australia’s trade surplus in November declined to A$9.42 billion from 10.78 billion (revised from 11.22 billion) in October amid rising commodity prices.

As a result, the S&P/ASX 200 stock index rose 0.33% this morning, led by mining and energy stocks, while the Australian Dollar has strengthened this week against the US Dollar. After Fed Chair Powell’s testimony before the Senate that failed to signal a rate hike as expected, the AUDUSD pair is now hitting a new nearly two-month high in the 0.7292 zone.

In Japan the November account surplus was sharply reduced to 897.3 billion yen from the 1,732.3 billion yen seen in the same period a year earlier. The Nikkei 225 index fell -0.94% today with Covid cases still rising hitting a four-month high of 13,000, while the USDJPY pair is now holding onto a two-week low of 114.40 after the US Dollar fell hard yesterday.

From a technical point of view, the AUDJPY pair in the H4 timeframe maintains its positive outlook that has been seen since December. The price is still fixed in the uptrend channel, resting above the MA50. The MACD line is above 0 and RSI is now above the 50 level, with 58 the main resistance at the high of the year at the 84.25 zone. However, if the price falls below the MA50 at 83.25 there could be a pickup in the low zone of the year at 82.40.

For the rest of this week’s economic calendar there are two major releases from Japan: today’s preliminary estimates for machine orders and tomorrow’s PPI figures.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

 

Chayut Vachirathanakit
Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Thailand

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