Forex Market

Market Update – August 8 – USD holds post NFP bid

USDIndex sinks held onto NFP inspired bid trades at 106.40, from 106.80.  NFP big beat across the board; headline more than double expectations at 528K, June revised 26K higher, Unemployment fell (3.5%) and Earnings rose (5.2%) = pressure back on Fed for 75bp hike in Sept. Recession what Recession? US Stocks slipped led by tech. TSLA 6.6% (3-1 stock split 25/8), TWTR +3.56%, META –2.00%, LYFT +16.8% ($1bn profit expected 2024), AMZN -1.2% (to buy iRobot $1.7bn) Asian markets mixed (Hang Seng -1.02%, Nikkei +0.29%). European FUTS also mixed. Yields rallied (10yr 2.8287%)  Oil under $90, Gold under $1770  and BTC moved up to $23.5k.

Berkshire Hathaway posted $43.8 bn loss on stock market declines. MUSK wants TWTR deal to go ahead if they can prove the % of real accounts, wants public debate with TWTR CEO. FED’s Bowman “expects “more 75bp hikes”. CFTC Net Longs in USD reduced last week. Chinese exports hit record 5- mth high Trade balance back over $101 bn. Biden gets his $430bn Climate, Healthcare & Tax Bill through the Senate, China continues exercises around Taiwan for 5th day.

Week Ahead – Highlight will be US CPI on Wednesday which is expected to decline to 0.2% m/m and  8.7% y/y.

USDIndex rallied to 106.80 post NFP holds at 106.45 now. YEN underperformed in Asian session.
EquitiesUSA500 closed lower -6.75 pts (+-0.16%) (4145), US500FUTS at 4150 now. 4175 key resistance remains. S&P500 gained +0.4% for the week, NASDAQ +2.2%.
Yields 10-year yield rallied into close. The 2/10 yr yield curve is now 40bp inverted. 30yr back over 3.00%.   
Oil – declined to $86.96 Friday back to $89.60 now and renaims under $90.00. 
Gold – topped at $1794 (50 day MA) in early Friday trades before tanking to under $1770. Trades at $1775 now, 20-day MA $1757.
Bitcoin dipped to $22.7K Friday, before strong weekend rally, trades at $23.7k now.
FX MarketsEURUSD down to 1.0177, USDJPY rallied 1.57% on Friday – trades at 135.50 now. Cable tested to important 1.2000 zone on Friday – recovered to 1.2080 now.

Overnight – JPY Bank Lending better than expected, but Econ. Sentiment sank to 43.8 from 52.9. NZD Inflation Expectations slipped to 3.07% from 3.29% & CHF Unemployment in-line at 2.2%.

Today – EZ Sentix Investor Confidence, Earnings from BioNTech, Barrick Gold, Porsche & Siemens Energy.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.68%). Bounced from 92.50 support on Friday to test key resistance and 7-day high today at 94.00. MAs aligned higher,  MACD histogram positive and signal line rising, RSI 69.44 rising & testing OB, H1 ATR 0.192, Daily ATR 1.218.

 

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Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

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