Forex Market

Market Update – October 7 – NFP Day – USD Remains on the frontfoot

USDIndex – Rallied again yesterday and trades over 112.00 (up 1.85% in 2-days) currently. The chorus of Fedspeak (Cook, Evans, Kashkari, Waller & Mester) all pushed the Hawkish tone. BOC’s Macklem also very Hawkish too. Weekly Claims rose to 219k from 190K but remain historically low. Fed Funds Futures now have a 85.5% chance of 75bp rate hike at Nov. 2 FOMC meeting.  Stocks closed -1%, Yields rallied (10-yr 3.83% from 3.55% earlier in the week). Oil rallied again to $89.00, Gold slipped but holds $1700 and BTC is under $20K again. Japan published more mixed data, (Earnings and Leading Indicators up, Household Spending down). German Import Prices rose significantly, Retail Sales & Ind. Production missed. Asian & European stocks are lower following a weak Wall St.  Biden says Putin’s nuclear threat biggest risk since Cuban Missile Crisis and that the US is reviewing ‘response options’ on Saudi relations after OPEC+. 
EUR – A brief brake of 0.9900, reversed all the way to 0.9786 now. ECB remains pressured to take more decisive action as Energy crisis swirls and fractures with EU persist, despite the “Prague” accord, with Putin increasingly cornered.  
JPY – Rallied from lows yesterday at 144.50 to once again test the key 145.00 now. Japan’s foreign reserves fell by a record $54 billion in September, as the BOJ tried to defended the Yen.
GBP Sterling sank another 240+ pips yesterday and is under pressure along with new PM Truss.  From over 1.1350 to 1.1110 lows yesterday, Cable trades at 1.1340 now.
Stocks – US stocks, were heavy all day and close down (-1.01%), US500 -38.00 at 3744. TWTR -3.72%, TSLA -1.11% (Musk lawsuit dropped & deal to close 28/10, also said Pepsi will get first semi tricks in December). LEVI -3.92% (ahead of weak Earnings; -6.34% after hours). US FUTS at 3740. 

USOil rallied again to $89.00 after OPEC+ agreed 2.0 million barrels per day production cuts this week, provoking major rebuke from the US. GS increased target to  
Gold – declined from another test of $1725 yesterday before again moving back to  $1710.  
BTC – dipped below the key $20k again today having tested $20.2k yesterday. Trades at 19.8k now.

Today –  US & Canadian Jobs reports, BoE’s Ramsden, Fed’s Williams, Kashkari, & Bostic.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPJPY (-0.25%) Continued to decline fro 6-day high at 165.500 on Wednesday to test 161.00 yesterday and trades at 161.35 now.  MAs aligned lower,  MACD histogram & signal line negative & falling RSI 35.28 & falling, H1 ATR 0.359, Daily ATR 3.498.

 

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Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

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