Forex Market

Market Update – November 23 – USD Slips, Stocks Higher, RBNZ add 75bp, FOMC Minutes to come

The USD Index slipped from over 107.50, to below 107.00, as stocks closed over 1% higher and Asian markets followed the US into positive territory, even as Chinese covid cases continue to climb. The RBNZ lifted interest rates in line with expectations to 4.25% from 3.5% in a hawkish hike expectations for terminal rate was lifted significantly to 5.5-5.75%. (NZD outperforming in Asian session). AUD PMI’s data missed and prosecutors called FTX a “personal fiefdom” of Sam Bankman-Fried, had  “substantial” assets missing & highlighted his parents & senior staff with Bahamian property worth over $300m.  
EUR – retakes 1.0300 from 1.0225 lows yesterday to trade at 1.0225.  
JPY – eased from 142.20 highs to under 141.00 – trades at 141.20 now. 
GBP – Sterling held the 1.1800 support and rallied to test 1.1900 now. The UK’s economy is set to be the worst performer in the G20 bar Russia over the next two years, according to the OECD.  
Stocks – Wall Street closed over 1%+ NASDAQ & S&P500 +1.36%. Exxon & Chevron best performers. US500 +53.64 (+1.36%) closing over 4000 at 4003, for the first time since September 12 (50 trading days), FUTS trades at 4009 now. 

USOil – Rallied to $82.00 and trades at $81.50 now, after shaking off increase production talk earlier in the week. Inventories are expected to decline by 2.6m barrels this week following last week’s outsized 5.4m barrel drawdown.
Gold – Rotating around $1740 but has once again tested to $1733 lows, trades at $1744 now at the 200-hr MA.     
BTC Sentiment woes continue, but a rally from 2-yr lows at $15.4k in the last 24hr has pushed the price to 200hr MA at $16.5k.

Today – FOMC Mins. (Fed signaling that interest rates will continue to rise but at a slower pace?), EZ, UK & US Flash PMIs, US Durable Goods, Weekly Claims, New Home Sales, Speeches -ECB’s de Guindos & BoE’s Pill,

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDCAD (+0.54%) recovered from a new move below 0.8200 earlier, and trades at 0.6265 now, next resistance at 0.8275 & 0.8300. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising,  RSI 62.88 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00188, Daily ATR 0.0083.

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Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

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