Forex Market

Events to Look Out For Next Week

Following Chair Powell and economic data that weighed on USD this week, the strong NFP numbers (263k vs. 200k) managed to reverse that pressure. Next week is quieter but remains significant, OPEC meetings kicking things off over the weekend and the RBA and BOC lead the December central bank announcements.

Have a look at the most important events of the coming days in our usual weekly publication.

Sunday – Monday  – 05 December 2022

OPEC Meeting (All Day – Sunday)

 

ECB President Lagarde Speech (EUR, GMT 01:45)
ISM Services PMI  (USD, GMT 15:00) – Services are key to any developed industrialized country’s economic growth. This key indicator has been declining all year – last month dipped to 54.4 from 56.7. Any sign of life for December?

Tuesday – 06 December 2022

RBA Cash Rate & Rate Statement (AUD, GMT 03:30) – Widely expected to raise rates again by 25 bp from 2.85% to 3.10%, having unexpectedly pivoted from increments of 50 basis points to 25 basis points in October. The RBA and Chair continue to focus on the fight against inflation and this months drop in CPI from 7.3% to 6.9% adds to the 25 bp argument.
Trade Balance (USD, GMT 15:00) – Trade in Goods & Services have been severely interrupted by the pandemic and then as economies opened and demand rose global supply chains became major constraints on growth. This month the data is likely to show a continued imbalance between Imports and Exports and could fall below $1.0b, from a summer high of over $5.3b.

Wednesday – 07 December 2022

Gross Domestic Product (AUD, GMT 00:30) – GDP for Q3 is expected to fall to 0.7% from 0.9% q/q and headline at 1.8% y/y from 3.6% y/y.
Gross Domestic Product  (EUR, GMT 10:00) – The Eurozone seasonally adjusted GDP for Q3 is expected to remain unchanged at 0.2% q/q and 2.1% y/y.
BOC Cash Rate & Rate Statement (AUD, GMT 03:30) – The Bank of Canada will hike its key interest rate by another 50 basis points from 3.75% to 4.25%,  according to a slim majority of economists in a Reuters poll. Even though the economy grew  2.9% in Q3 it is increasingly at risk from a falling property market and one of the highest household debt-to-income ratios in the world.

Thursday – 08 December 2022

Final Gross Domestic Product (JPY, GMT 00:00)  Seasonally adjusted GDP for Q3 is expected to remain unchanged at -0.3% q/q and -1.2% y/y.
ECB President Lagarde Speech (EUR, GMT 12:00)
Unemployment Claims (USD, GMT 13:30) – last week initial Claims missed expectations and came in at 225k versus expectations of 235k, however the previous week was revised higher to 241k. The 4-week average rose to 228.75k from 227.00k.

Friday – 09 December 2022

Consumer Price Inflation (CNY, GMT 01:30)  Chinese inflation as measured by CPI  is expected to remain unchanged m/m at 0.1% and to fall significantly y/y from 2.1% to 1.0%. Producer Price Index y/y is likely to decrease further to -1.5% from -1.3%.
Producer Price Inflation (USD, GMT 12:30) Producer Price Index ex. Food & Energy y/y for November is expected to decline to 6.0% from 6.7% in October.

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Stuart Cowell

Head Analyst

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