Forex Market

Market Update – March 15 – Can the bounce back hold?

The USD tested into 20-day lows again as Stock markets recovered (NASDAQ +2.14%) from 3 big down days following the SVB shock. US CPI cooled to 6% from 6.4% (as expected) however, the CORE figure for February actually rose and demonstrates the “stickiness” of Services inflation in particular. Fed Funds Futures sees a 81.2% chance of a 25 bp hike next week from the FED. Overnight: The BOJ Mins. conformed commitment to super easy policy noting a rising inflation picture, Chinese Unemployment surprisingly increased to 5.6% as Retail Sales recovered strongly to 3.5% from –1.8%.

FXUSDIndex has dipped again to test the 103.00 zone today, last Wednesday it was at 105.85.  EUR holds over 1.0700 and has breached 1.0750 today. JPY holds over 134.00 but remains capped by 135.00 today. Sterling ahead of the UK Budget today holds at 1.2150 after testing  1.2200 highs on Monday & Tuesday. 
Stocks – The US markets rallied yesterday (+1.06% to +2.14%). As tech companies recovered and Banks bounced. Movers: FRC +27%, SCHW +9.19%, META +7.25%, TSLA +5.03%. BANCORP -3.43%, AMC -5.20%. US500 +1.68% (+29.96) to recover 3900 to close at 3920, US500 FUTS higher at 3925 now. 

Commodities – USOil – Futures collapsed some4% yesterday, posting new 2023 &  2022 lows at $70.72 yesterday. It has since recovered +1.35% to recent support levels at $72.20, which could now act as resistance. Gold – holds the key psychological $1900 level, up some $90 an ounce from tests of $1809 last week.    
Cryptocurrencies  – BTC breached both $25 & $26K yesterday to test a 9-mth high at $26.3k. Currently it trades below $25k at $24.8k. 

Today –  EZ Industrial Production, US NY Fed, PPI & Retail Sales, UK Spring Budget, IEA OMR, NZ GDP.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURJPY (+0.59%). Continued the rally today from Monday’s low under 141.500 yon Monday back to test 145.00 now. MA’s aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 71.53, OB & rising, H1 ATR 0.222, Daily ATR 1.377.

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Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

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